ILLUSION OF LIMITED WAR ON AGAINST IRAN
U.S. casualties on a WW2 scale

"... The range of predictable responses available to the IRGC high command include dramatic hit ad run attacks against military and commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf, the use of mid-range ballistic missiles against American bases in the region and Israel and a direct assault on American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. All these options are likely to be used within 48 hours of the start of hostilities...

"One possible response by the IRGC Qods force is spectacular terrorist-style attacks against American intelligence bases and assets throughout the region. The IRGC Qods Force is believed to have identified every key component of the American intelligence apparatus in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan...

"The IRGC navy will also play a key asymmetrical role in the conflict by organising maritime suicide bombings on an industrial scale. By manning its fleet of speedboats with suicide bombers and ramming them into American warships and even neutral commercial shipping, (they) will hope to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 40 percent of world crude oil supplies pass...

"The combination of these asymmetrical forms of warfare with more conventional style missile and even ground force attacks on American bases in the region will likely result in thousands of American military casualties in the space of a few weeks. The IRGC has both the will and wherewithal to inflict a level of casualties on American armed forces not seen since the Second World War...

"Not only will it awaken the sleeping giant of Iranian nationalism... U.S. military aggression will likely accelerate the actualisation of the very scenario that American political and military leaders insist they are determined to prevent, i.e. a nuclear armed Iran..."

http://www.juancole.com/2010/08/abedin-the-illusion-of-a-‘limited-war’-against-iran.html

AHMADINEJAD EXPECTS U.S. ATTACK SOON

"Iran expects the United States to launch a military strike... "They have decided to attack at least two countries in the region in the next three months," Ahmadinejad said..."
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/07/27-7

IRAN READY TO RESOLVE NUCLEAR DISPUTE

"Iran is ready for "effective cooperation" to resolve the dispute over its nuclear program... will talk with P5+1 as of early September, but there are some conditions... the conditions for talks include the P5+1 members announcing their positions on Israel having nuclear weapons... The P5+1 consists of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- the United States, Russia, China, France and United Kingdom -- and Germany..."
http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/07/27/iran.nuclear.negotiations/index.html?iphoneemail

EX-CIA DIRECTOR SAYS STRIKE ON IRAN IS "INEXORABLE"

"Michael Hayden, a CIA chief under President George W. Bush...predicts Iran will build its program to the point where it's just below having an actual weapon... during his tenure a strike was "way down the list" of options. But... such action now "seems inexorable."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/25/us-iran-military-strike-likely_n_658522.html

IRAN STUDYING NUCLEAR FUSION

"Iran's nuclear agency began studies Saturday to build an experimental nuclear fusion reactor, something that has yet to be achieved by any nation... Iran will take two years to complete these studies and then another decade to design and build a reactor... The United States, the European Union, China, India, Russia, Japan and South Korea signed an accord in 2006 to build a $12.8 billion experimental fusion reactor at Cadarache, southern France, aimed at revolutionizing global energy use for future generations. The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, or ITER, members have said no single country can afford the immense investment needed to move the science forward... Iran's nuclear chief, said Iran was willing to join any international grouping to offer its expertise to promote the project. However, he said Iran will go its own way should the world not welcome it."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/iran_nuclear

IRANIAN DEFECTOR TOLD CIA IRAN HAS NO NUKE PROGRAM

"... CIA sources familiar with the Amiri case say he told his CIA handlers that there is no such Iranian nuclear weapons programme... Amiri provided "almost no information" about Iran's nuclear programme... but had picked up "scuttlebutt" from other nuclear scientists with whom he was acquainted that the Iranians have no active nuclear weapon programme... (which is a) reaffirmation... of the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)'s finding that work on a nuclear weapon has not been resumed after being halted in 2003..."
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/07/19-5

GOP LAWMAKER SAYS IRANIANS INFILTRATING FROM MEXICO



"Iran is working with Venezuela. And they're transiting through Venezuela, taking Spanish for maybe six months. They're getting the false documents that they need, coming up through Mexico and if they're stopped, they just say well I'm Spanish... the other thing that we're seeing... in the prisons is Farsi tattoos. Farsi is basically a Persian language, which Iran is... That's a pretty good indication that these people coming across our border are not just coming from Mexico..."
--Representative Sue Myrick (R-N.C.), member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/14/sue-myricks-latest-conspi_n_646093.html

This Republican congresswoman, who is on the House Intelligence Committee, believes that Iran sends agents to Venezuela to be trained in Spanish, so they can cross the Mexican border into the US, where so many end up in prison that they can be spotted by their Farsi tattoos.

This fear-mongering fantasy neatly combines Iran, Chavez, the Mexican border, immigration reform, and olive-skinned prisoners unto a call for action. Dislike of immigrants was not enough; now fear of Iran is being used to justify more defenses on the Mexican border. And it also increases the support for an attack on Iran.

In analyzing this "intelligence", I expect that:
1. There are Iranians in Venezuela as a result of the trade and military exchanges between the two countries.
2. The people in the trade and military missions are learning each other's languages.
3. No Spanish-speaking Iranian agents have been caught on the Mexican border.
3. The tattoos on the US prisoners are Arabic, and the prisoners are Hispanics and/or converts to Islam, who speak no Farsi and have no connection to Iran.

IRAN SUBJECT TO NUCLEAR DOUBLE STANDARD

"... U.S. and other nuclear-armed powers have punished Iran with the sanctions even though it doesn't have nuclear weapons, while at the same time they support Israel, which is widely believed to have a sizable nuclear arsenal...

"The Jewish state, which unlike Iran has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity about its nuclear program, neither confirming nor denying that it has nuclear weapons...

"(Meanwhile) ... the U.N. nuclear watchdog never found evidence of Tehran diverting its nuclear program into weapons-making... (and Iran says) it only seeks nuclear energy for peaceful purposes and insists on its rights under the nonproliferation treaty to enrich uranium and produce nuclear fuel..."

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/06/18-0

IRAN'S RISING INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA

"Iran has undertaken its own ambitious mission in recent years to expand its influence across Latin America and the Caribbean... The expanding Iranian-Brazilian interface, as well as Iran's growing multifaceted contacts with Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Cuba, Guyana, among a host of other nations in the Americas, reflect Iran's commitment to assert itself as a player in its own right in the Americas.... (D)iplomatic exchanges and growing business contacts between Iran and partners in Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, Peru and Mexico, coupled with the opening of new Iranian embassies, also illustrate the rapid development of the Islamic Republic's relations with the region..."
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LF19Ak03.html

AHMADINEJAD UP, GREEN MOVEMENT DOWN

"Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad seems be to standing on firmer political ground than any other time during his time in office... his government is now more confident at home and more respected abroad. On a broader scale, the Islamic Republic of Iran is in many ways stronger and more stable... In the international arena of geopolitical and diplomatic challenges, Iran has recently scored a number of important points and won important new allies... (with) the recent Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on nuclear fuel exchange...

"(Meanwhile)... the political fortunes of... Mir Hossein Mousavi... have significantly declined and their ''Green'' movement... is in disintegration... (T)he green movement ran a dishonest presidential campaign. Its candidate, Mousavi, ran for president but refused to submit to the will of the majority when it became clear that he had lost the election. This has led many observers to believe that his presidential campaign was more akin to a coup attempt..."

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LF16Ak01.html

AFGHAN INSURGENTS GETTING AID FROM IRAN

"Afghan insurgents are being trained inside Iran and given weapons to fight security forces, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces said... General Stanley McChrystal said... Iran, as a neighbor, had natural interests in Afghanistan and to a certain extent the assistance and interaction it provided was healthy. "There is however clear evidence of Iranian activity, in some cases of providing weapons and training to the Taliban that is inappropriate... "

"Tehran's economic influence in Afghanistan has grown rapidly in recent years, especially in the West, where cross-border trade is brisk. A dialect of Iran's Farsi language is one of two state languages in Afghanistan, and Iran hosted millions of Afghan refugees during decades of conflict...."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_afghanistan_iran

U.S. ORDERS CLANDESTINE MILITARY OPERATIONS INSIDE IRAN

"... Gen. David H. Petraeus... has ordered a broad expansion of clandestine military activity in an effort to disrupt militant groups or counter threats in Iran... the order also permits reconnaissance that could pave the way for possible military strikes in Iran if tensions over its nuclear ambitions escalate... The secret directive, signed in September... appears to authorize specific operations in Iran, most likely to gather intelligence about the country’s nuclear program or identify dissident groups that might be useful for a future military offensive..."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/25/world/25military.html

U.S. DENIES IRAN THE RIGHT TO PEACEFUL ENRICHMENT
Because such knowledge would be a deterrent against attack

"... the position of the U.S.... has been that Iran must be compelled to forfeit its right to enrich uranium, even for a purely peaceful nuclear program, since the technological knowledge that Iran is acquiring by enriching uranium could be diverted towards a military program in the future...

(However) Iran's goal is not the acquisition of a nuclear weapon, but the acquisition of the technological knowledge to assemble the components of a nuclear weapon without actually building one and without violating the nuclear non-proliferation treaty... this approach could give Iran much of the benefit of acquiring a nuclear weapon as a deterrent against Western attack without subjecting Iran to the negative political and economic consequences of openly violating the treaty.

(So) The U.S. goal has not been merely to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon - the U.S. goal has been to prevent Iran from acquiring the deterrent benefits of getting close to acquiring a nuclear weapon..."

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/05/04-4

IRAN NO THREAT

"... Iran historically is not an aggressive, expansive nation. Though it is, by dint of its oil reserves and its population, one of the biggest and most powerful countries in the Middle East, it has not invaded another country since the 18th century, and there is no indication that it plans to invade any other country now... For Iran to launch a crude nuke at Israel would be an act of national suicide, and while individual terrorists may kill themselves, nations don't commit suicide....

"Iran... (is not) America's arch enemy... It has backed the same Shi'ite led government in Iraq that the US has been backing, and indeed, to the extent that Iraq has stabilized, it is largely Iran's doing. It provided key help to the US in the early invasion of Afghanistan and the routing of the Taliban government, which was never favored by the Iranians... Iran has no ability to attack the US, and even its ability to threaten US forces in Iraq or Afghanistan is severely limited, not to mention the fact that should it be foolhardy enough to initiate any such action, it would bring down the full force of the US military on its head in an instant..."

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/04/22-7

IRAN AIMING FOR NUCLEAR LATENCY AS DETERRANCE
U.S. has no policy to deal with it

"... Iran (may) choose the course that many government and outside analysts consider likely: Iran could assemble all the major parts it needs for a nuclear weapon — fuel, designs and detonators — but stop just short of assembling a fully operational weapon. In that case, Iran could remain a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty while becoming what strategists call a “virtual” nuclear weapons state.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/18/world/middleeast/18iran.html?hp

"... Tehran (may) achieve ‘nuclear latency’ (where a country has the ability to construct a nuclear weapon but stops short of doing so), in order to avoid international sanctions and disapproval... (Secretary of Defense) Gates concurs with those analysts... that Iran does not intend actually to build a bomb, but wants the technical know-how to do so as a way of deterring foreign invasions and attacks... Gates sent the White House a memo last January observing that the US has no real developed policy for dealing with Iran should Tehran achieve ‘nuclear latency’..."
http://www.juancole.com/2010/04/gates-worries-about-iranian-nuclear-research-while-khamenei-blasts-us-for-hiroshima.html

ISRAEL THE CAUSE OF IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

"... Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is at the moment largely in compliance with it, has no nuclear arsenal, and does not even have a nuclear weapons program. (The treaty allows countries to enrich uranium for fuel, which is all that Iran is known to be doing). Yet the US has an extensive regime of economic sanctions on Iran, along with UN Security Council sanctions, both of which Obama is attempting to ratchet up. In contrast, Israel is actively constructing more and more nuclear warheads, which it is stockpiling, and which its leaders occasionally brandish at other Middle Eastern states. The Israeli arsenal, in turn, spurs a Middle East arms race..."
-- Juan Cole, Informed Comment, April 11, 2010
http://www.juancole.com/

IRAN DEVELOPING NUKES OUT OF FEAR

"... Iran is developing nuclear weapons out of a rational fear for its national safety because of the systematically threatening posture of the United States and Israel... Hostile actions of the United States and its Israeli client are a major factor in Iran's decisions of whether or not to develop a nuclear deterrent... the defiant and hypocritical insistence of the United States on holding the constant threat of military action over Iran as a punishment for its noncompliance with United Nations mandates..."
--Noam Chomsky, Memorial Church, Harvard University, March 6, 2010
http://www.hlrecord.org/news/noam-chomsky-iran-pursuing-nuclear-weapons-out-of-fear-1.1265656

IRAN ANNOUNCES CRUISE MISSILES

"Iran announced Sunday that it has started a new production line of highly accurate, short range cruise missiles... the cruise missile, called Nasr 1, would be capable of destroying targets up to 3,000 tons in size... the missile can be fired from ground-based launchers as well as ships, but would eventually be modified to be fired from helicopters and submarines... the cruise missiles would strengthen Iran's naval power..."
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2010-03-07-iran-missile_N.htm?csp=usat.me

IRAN NUCLEAR STOCKPILE OUT IN OPEN

"Iran moved nearly its entire stockpile of low-enriched nuclear fuel to an above-ground plant... with inspectors present, the Iranians moved roughly 4,300 pounds of low-enriched uranium out of deep underground storage to the small plant that they have declared they will use to re-enrich the fuel to 20 percent purity... the fuel now sits out in the open, where an air attack... could destroy it.... military officials say this is a tempting moment for the Israelis...."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/27/world/middleeast/27iran.html?hp

IRAN AND THE NUCLEAR TREATY

From the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty:
"Article I: Each nuclear-weapons state (NWS) undertakes not to transfer, to any recipient, nuclear weapons...
Article II: Each non-NWS party undertakes not to receive, from any source, nuclear weapons...
Article III: Each non-NWS party undertakes to conclude an agreement with the IAEA for the application of its safeguards to all nuclear material in all of the state's peaceful nuclear activities and to prevent diversion of such material to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.
Article IV: Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable right of all the Parties to the Treaty to develop research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Non-Proliferation_Treaty

"... Greg Thielmann, Senior Fellow at the Arms Control Association, notes that it would be far better if the U.S. would stress that Iran's right to uranium enrichment, consistent with Non-Proliferation Treaty Article IV, is contingent on Iran's adherence to the treaty's Articles I, II, and III. Thielmann notes that Iran has no inherent right to uranium enrichment while it is violating its Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA. Yet this point is being lost by the West's unqualified emphasis on the demand that uranium enrichment be suspended, and inconsistent U.S. statements about Iran's intention to develop nuclear weapons. Consequently, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can posture that the West is just trying to keep Iran down and deny it the rights guaranteed under the NPT..."

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/02/22-1