IRAN NO THREAT

"... Iran historically is not an aggressive, expansive nation. Though it is, by dint of its oil reserves and its population, one of the biggest and most powerful countries in the Middle East, it has not invaded another country since the 18th century, and there is no indication that it plans to invade any other country now... For Iran to launch a crude nuke at Israel would be an act of national suicide, and while individual terrorists may kill themselves, nations don't commit suicide....

"Iran... (is not) America's arch enemy... It has backed the same Shi'ite led government in Iraq that the US has been backing, and indeed, to the extent that Iraq has stabilized, it is largely Iran's doing. It provided key help to the US in the early invasion of Afghanistan and the routing of the Taliban government, which was never favored by the Iranians... Iran has no ability to attack the US, and even its ability to threaten US forces in Iraq or Afghanistan is severely limited, not to mention the fact that should it be foolhardy enough to initiate any such action, it would bring down the full force of the US military on its head in an instant..."

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/04/22-7

IRAN AIMING FOR NUCLEAR LATENCY AS DETERRANCE
U.S. has no policy to deal with it

"... Iran (may) choose the course that many government and outside analysts consider likely: Iran could assemble all the major parts it needs for a nuclear weapon — fuel, designs and detonators — but stop just short of assembling a fully operational weapon. In that case, Iran could remain a signatory of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty while becoming what strategists call a “virtual” nuclear weapons state.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/18/world/middleeast/18iran.html?hp

"... Tehran (may) achieve ‘nuclear latency’ (where a country has the ability to construct a nuclear weapon but stops short of doing so), in order to avoid international sanctions and disapproval... (Secretary of Defense) Gates concurs with those analysts... that Iran does not intend actually to build a bomb, but wants the technical know-how to do so as a way of deterring foreign invasions and attacks... Gates sent the White House a memo last January observing that the US has no real developed policy for dealing with Iran should Tehran achieve ‘nuclear latency’..."
http://www.juancole.com/2010/04/gates-worries-about-iranian-nuclear-research-while-khamenei-blasts-us-for-hiroshima.html

ISRAEL THE CAUSE OF IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

"... Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is at the moment largely in compliance with it, has no nuclear arsenal, and does not even have a nuclear weapons program. (The treaty allows countries to enrich uranium for fuel, which is all that Iran is known to be doing). Yet the US has an extensive regime of economic sanctions on Iran, along with UN Security Council sanctions, both of which Obama is attempting to ratchet up. In contrast, Israel is actively constructing more and more nuclear warheads, which it is stockpiling, and which its leaders occasionally brandish at other Middle Eastern states. The Israeli arsenal, in turn, spurs a Middle East arms race..."
-- Juan Cole, Informed Comment, April 11, 2010
http://www.juancole.com/