Monday, November 28, 2011

IAEA REPORT MAKES WAR LESS LIKELY
Nuclear knowledge cannot be destroyed by airstrikes

"... there was nothing in the IAEA report that makes military action more likely. If anything, it points to the limits of the effectiveness of a military campaign, which would have to be weighed against the risk of starting a potentially catastrophic regional war. The report was mainly based on information already known to Western intelligence agencies. It did not reveal the sort of new evidence of immediate danger that would lead Israel or the United States to take a decision now about whether they can live with an Iranian atomic bomb or must take urgent military action to prevent it. Instead, Western states are likely to stick to diplomacy and economic measures, while keeping a vigilant eye out for as-yet-untaken steps - such as expelling international monitors or diverting nuclear material from known sites - that might show Iran was embarking on an all-out bid to build a bomb."

"... The IAEA report, like earlier U.S. intelligence estimates, suggested Iran had been pursuing the science needed to make an atomic bomb at least until 2003. But that interest mostly took the form of research, rather than building actual bomb-making infrastructure. Experts refer to that knowledge as a "nuclear intangible," and you can't destroy it by air strikes, said Andrea Berger of Britain's Royal United Services Institute: "Because it would be a nuclear intangible, it's something that can't be rectified with a military strike."

http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-irans-nuclear-showdown-west-still-short-war-144321024.html;_ylt=AjoxSqEngJ7Z12_XGglq05zNt.d_;_ylu=X3oDMTRvOTlpY3IxBGNjb2RlA2dtcHRvcDEwMDBwb29sd2lraXVwcmVzdARtaXQDTmV3cyBmb3IgeW91BHBrZwNjZGExOTk0OC1jZTVhLTNmN2QtYWM0NS1kYzVmMTI4NTgwOTMEcG9zAzkEc2VjA25ld3NfZm9yX3lvdQR2ZXIDODE4ZTEzYzAtMTUyOS0xMWUxLWJkZmEtOTY4M2FjYzhiYTVj;_ylg=X3oDMTNobW90YmFoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDNWY5MmU4MTAtNWRiNi0zZTVkLWJjZmQtYWU1NWY4NGI2ODgwBHBzdGNhdANwb2xpdGljc3xkZXN0aW5hdGlvbjIwMTIEcHQDc3RvcnlwYWdlBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3